Todd Maiden
3 min read
Transportation metrics saw little change in May as capacity, utilization and pricing remained in expansion territory, according to a monthly survey of supply chain professionals.
The Logistics Managers’ Index – a diffusion index in which a reading above 50 indicates expansion while one below 50 signals contraction – had a 54.7 reading for transportation capacity during May, which was roughly in line with April.
The Tuesday report classified capacity as “tight, but not too tight” while growth in transportation utilization remained largely anemic at 52.6 – the lowest reading for the subindex since November 2023.
Capacity was reported to be tighter for upstream companies like manufacturers and wholesalers, which returned a neutral reading of 50 compared to downstream retailers, which said capacity notably expanded (65.3).
Even with available capacity and only modest growth in utilization, transportation prices (63.1) continued to step meaningfully higher. Prices were just slightly inflationary at the beginning of the month but surged to 71.5 in the second half. (The report classifies a reading over 70 as “significant expansion.”)
The pricing index has outpaced the capacity index for 13 straight months. The dynamic could represent an improving freight market, but it also reflects transportation companies offsetting higher operating costs through rate increases.
Increases in logistics costs were more pronounced at smaller companies (69.8) than at larger entities (56.7).
Transportation prices were forecast to be significantly higher a year from now, with respondents returning a 75 reading for the pricing outlook.
There is a consensus building across the market that “the worst-case scenarios associated with potential tariffs will not come to pass,” and 2026 could be more reflective of a transportation recovery, barring a macroeconomic recession.
The overall LMI came in at 59.4 for May, up 60 basis points from April. In addition to higher transportation prices, increased costs across the supply chain drove the increase in the overall index.
Inventory costs (78.4) were up 2.8 percentage points even as growth in inventory levels (51.5) slowed by 5.5 points.
The inventory costs index was at its highest level since October 2022, and the 27-point gap between the two subindexes “suggests that the inventories that were rushed into the country earlier this year are now static and holding them is expensive,” the report said.
“If the spread between these two metrics remains this high, it could spell trouble for the overall economy.”
Inventory levels moved slightly into contraction in the back half of the month. Upstream firms (56.5) were taking delivery ahead of tariffs while downstream companies saw contraction (43.1).
