Ricardo Pillai
3 min read
In This Article:
We came across a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) on Vidette Capital Research’s Substack by Tristan Unger. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on KSPI. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI)'s share was trading at $88.22 as of 12th June. KSPI’s trailing P/E was 8.04 according to Yahoo Finance.
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Kaspi.kz presents a compelling long-term opportunity as a dominant super app in Kazakhstan, integrating payments, e-commerce, and fintech services with unmatched vertical efficiency and user engagement. Its customer-centric design, strong brand equity, and proprietary infrastructure allow it to operate at high margins and low cost, while its data-rich ecosystem strengthens credit risk modeling and monetization.
Kaspi’s financial health is robust, with no debt and investment-grade ratings, and the company continues to benefit from favorable secular trends including cashless adoption, mobile commerce, and rising digital engagement. Valuation remains attractive—Kaspi trades at just 7.7x forward earnings and 4.15x forward EV/EBITDA, well below global super app peers like MercadoLibre, NU Holdings, and Tencent. A fair value range of $125–$150 offers a 24–36% margin of safety, with potential upside if inflation stabilizes and international expansion succeeds.
However, risks remain. The Kazakhstani tenge’s 20% depreciation over five years has reduced USD-equivalent returns for ADR holders, and renewed inflation or geopolitical volatility—especially stemming from Russia or the Middle East—could further pressure consumer spending, interest rates, and investor sentiment.
Regulatory uncertainty in Kazakhstan and operational complexities tied to cross-border expansion also pose medium-term challenges. While inflation is a secondary concern compared to network effects for platform businesses, sustained currency devaluation could erode returns despite strong local performance.
Given these dynamics, Kaspi merits a cautiously optimistic stance: a small position has been initiated, with plans to increase exposure on further weakness, provided inflation remains contained and regional stability persists.
Previously, we highlighted a bullish thesis on Kaspi.kz (KSPI) by Antoni Nabzdyk, underscoring its dominant super app positioning, high-margin ecosystem, and Apple-like customer lock-in within an insulated Kazakh market. Tristan Unger shares this conviction but emphasizes Kaspi’s proprietary infrastructure, debt-free balance sheet, and deep undervaluation relative to global peers—arguing that even with currency and geopolitical risks, the platform’s monetization strength and secular tailwinds justify a selectively aggressive investment stance.
