Jeremy Bowman, The Motley Fool

Tue, Jun 3, 2025, 5:15 AM4 min read

• Some Wall Street analysts see Upstart rising by 50% or more.

• The company's results have improved since it released an updated AI model.

• Upstart is making progress in the large auto and home loan makrets.

• 10 stocks we like better than Upstart ›

When investors think of AI stocks, Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) may not be the first that comes to mind. However, the company has a strong claim to the title. It's harnessed the power of machine learning and data science for a new credit platform that has been more accurate at assessing creditworthiness than conventional FICO scores, according to Upstart.

As a stock, Upstart has been one of the more volatile names in the market as the business has considerable potential, but it has also struggled to turn a profit in recent years. Plus, any credit business is inherently risky, since loans could go bad if the economy sours, or Upstart's credit partners could stop buying its loans, eliminating the funding it needs to operate.

Upstart's latest earnings report offered more reasons to be optimistic. Its transaction volume jumped 102% in the first quarter to 240,706 with originations up 89% to $2.1 billion. Meanwhile, its conversion rate improved from 14% to 19.1% because of an update in its AI model that makes as many as 1 million predictions per applicant to determine whether to lend to the applicant and what interest rate to charge.

Overall, revenue jumped 67% to $213 million, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) improved from a loss of $20.3 million to a profit of $42.6 million.

Now, several Wall Street analysts have turned bullish on Wall Street, and some see considerable upside to the stock.

According to Tipranks, of the 11 analysts that have rated Upstart in the last three months, four analysts rate it a buy and seven call it a hold. However, the average price target for the stock is $65.33, or a 39% upside on average.

Among the analysts that are most bullish on Upstart are Peter Christiansen of Citi, who rates the stock a buy and gives it a price target of $83; Dan Dolev of Mizuho, who gives it a buy rating and a price target of $83; and Kyle Peterson of Needham, who gives it a buy rating and a price target of $70.

Christiansen has noted Upstart's increasing interest from private credit managers and improving partner network. Dan Dolev recently reiterated a buy rating after double upgrading the stock last year in response to the company's improved profitability, and it's capturing the benefits from AI in its updated model. Kyle Peterson of Needham also sees an improving funding backdrop and balance sheet at Upstart driving the stock higher.