Watch This Level on the 10-Year Treasury Yield

Treasuries haven’t seen all that much action over the past month despite big world events.

The 10-year Treasury yield has closed strictly within the range of 4.35% and 4.51% since May 23 even as Israel attacked Iran, while the U.S. and China reached another trade agreement.

A lot can happen that can wake up the sleepy bond market. The 4.285% level on the 10-year yield, its 200-day moving average, is key to watch. If yields move below that level, it indicates yields could fall even lower, a bullish trend. Falling yields indicate bond prices are rising, which is good news for existing holders of the bonds.