Sneha Nahata

Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 8:49 AM4 min read

Nike (NKE) is set to report its fourth quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Thursday, June 26, amid a period of transition and uncertainty. While the sportswear giant has undertaken a series of turnaround efforts to regain its footing, the results of those strategies are not expected to show meaningful traction just yet. In the meantime, the upcoming earnings release is expected to reflect the weight of ongoing challenges, including intense competition, a sluggish Chinese market, and increased markdown activity.

Notably, Nike’s performance has been sluggish over the past several quarters. Given its weak performance, Nike stock has underperformed the broader markets. Moreover, it is down about 20.5% year-to-date.

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For many investors, Q4 results may be less about the actual numbers and more about what lies ahead. The market will closely watch management’s outlook for the fiscal first quarter and how well Nike is positioned to navigate tariff pressures.

With nearly all of its production outside the U.S., Nike remains vulnerable to international trade disruptions and tariff-related cost pressures.

Overall, market sentiment around Nike stock remains cautious ahead of the Q4 report. This means that a weak Q4 print is already factored into Nike’s stock price. However, management’s positive commentary for fiscal 2026 and its efforts around mitigating tariff-related headwinds could lift the stock.

From a financial perspective, Nike’s Q4 will remain weak. The company is likely to report declining sales for its classic footwear lines. Furthermore, traffic across both its direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels is expected to remain soft, and the company may continue to report weakness in China, its key growth market outside the U.S.

Nike’s management has guided for revenues to decline in the mid-teens range year-over-year in Q4, citing headwinds such as unfavorable shipment timing in North America and adverse foreign exchange impacts.

Its margins are likely to remain under stress. Gross margins are projected to fall by 400 to 500 basis points, driven by a mix of restructuring charges, discounts, inventory challenges, and a less favorable product and channel mix.

While Nike has faced significant competitive and macro headwinds, it has shown a knack for beating expectations. Nike has outpaced analysts’ earnings forecasts for four consecutive quarters, including a significant beat in its most recent report.