Ryan Vanzo, The Motley Fool
5 min read
In This Article:
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Rivian's new line of vehicles should help propel the company forward.
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Surprisingly, the future of Rivian might not involve making cars at all.
There's a lot to love about Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock right now. Over the next 12 to 24 months, the company will experience several major growth catalysts. But as Warren Buffett often advises, keeping an eye on the long term is key to generating the biggest profits.
Where might Rivian end up 10 years from now? The answer might surprise you.
To understand where Rivian is headed over the next 10 years, we must first look at some near-term factors. That's because Rivian's near-term growth catalysts should help set the company up for the next decade of growth.
When it comes to electric vehicle (EV) stocks, one of the most exciting catalysts involves getting new models to market that the masses can afford. Roughly 70% of Americans want their next car to cost less than $50,000. Getting vehicles to market with starting prices under this threshold is critical to putting growth on overdrive.
But this is a challenge for most EV makers. On average, electric vehicles still cost more to build than conventional ones, and many EV start-ups lack the scale to sell vehicles at low prices. Plus, they often lack the capital runway to take a big financial hit by pricing vehicles that cost a lot to manufacture at a steep discount for consumers.
After years of investment, Rivian is finally poised to release its first "mass market" vehicles. The R2, R3, and R3X are all expected to debut with starting prices under $50,000. The first of these three should start production in early 2026, though I don't expect full production of all three to commence until 2027 at the earliest.
Still, these vehicles have the potential to revolutionize Rivian's business, changing it from a niche EV producer to a nationally recognized brand. Mass market vehicles like these can finally give Rivian the scale it needs to survive long term.
Right now, Tesla's two mass market vehicles -- the Model Y and Model 3 -- contribute more than 90% of its vehicle sales. They are critical for the company's profitability. Rivian's new models hold the same sales growth and profitability potential.
But beyond these three new vehicles, the future of Rivian isn't what you might expect. In fact, over the next 10 years, Rivian's most promising opportunity might not involve manufacturing vehicles at all.
