Aditya Raghunath
3 min read
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest projects that SpaceX will reach a $2.5 trillion valuation by 2030, indicating a 38% annualized return from its current $350 billion valuation. The forecast hinges on completing Starlink’s satellite constellation, which currently has 7,600 satellites in orbit with plans to expand to 42,000 by 2035.
ARK’s valuation model, developed with space research firm Mach33, estimates that Starlink could generate $300 billion in annual revenue and capture 15% of global communications spending. This revenue would rival Apple’s (AAPL) current $391 billion in sales, highlighting the massive scale of the opportunity.
The analysis suggests SpaceX will gradually shift focus toward Mars colonization once Starlink is complete. ARK believes that Elon Musk’s other ventures, including Tesla’s (TSLA) Optimus robots and The Boring Company’s machinery, will support the development of Mars infrastructure. While acknowledging the speculative nature of extraterrestrial commerce, ARK expects Mars-related business to impact SpaceX’s valuation by the late 2030s.
SpaceX’s growth depends heavily on government contracts, having received over $20 billion in federal funding over 15 years. This reliance explains Musk’s recent efforts to repair his relationship with President Donald Trump after their public dispute.
Investors can gain exposure through ARK’s Venture Fund (ARKVX), in which SpaceX accounts for over 13% of the holdings, alongside other Musk companies such as Neuralink and xAI. The fund has delivered nearly 20% returns over the past year.
For investors seeking exposure to companies like SpaceX before they go public, the ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF (XOVR) offers another compelling solution.
This actively managed fund targets companies that meet the highest conviction threshold of the advisor’s proprietary Entrepreneur Factor model. It focuses on companies that drive innovation and have the potential to create substantial shareholder value.
XOVR’s investment strategy aligns with Wood’s investment philosophy as it identifies companies that rely on breakthrough technologies and disruptive business models. The fund can invest up to 15% of its net assets in privately offered securities that aren’t exchange-traded, providing access to pre-IPO companies with characteristics similar to those of SpaceX.
