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Escalation Is Key Fear for Markets After Strike, Analysts Say

(Bloomberg) -- The key question for markets following Israel’s strike on Iran is how much worse things will get, say strategists.

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Israel has launched airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program and military targets. Defense Minister Israel Katz called the move “preemptive,” while Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes would last until the threat is removed. The tension weighed on markets: Oil surged, Asian stocks and global equity futures fell, and the dollar reversed earlier losses as traders sought familiar havens.

Here’s what market watchers from Sydney to Paris are saying:

Nicolas Forest, chief investment officer at Candriam in Brussels

“The attack on Iran is a classic risk-off factor that leads to a decline in stocks and a flight to quality. The sharp rise in oil prices, if it continues, could negatively impact growth and inflation, reinforcing the potential risk of stagflation already present with the tariff war. The oil price rally is clearly not in the interest of the Trump administration”

Kim Forrest, a US-based chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners

“It seems like Israel has taken it upon itself to destroy the nuclear bomb building capabilities of Iran and that’s not what we’ve seen in the past. It’s unclear what will happen throughout the night... We’ll see if cooler heads can prevail”

“This is very serious. It’s surprising the market isn’t down more. Do I expect things to get lower in the coming hours? Heck yeah, I expect it to be lower by the time I wake up but it’ll also depend on who’s talking and what’s happening”

Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris

“This is likely to put the current rally on European and US indexes on hold. The stock market was getting expensive so this will encourage investors, particularly retail, to take some profits now”

Alexandre Hezez, chief investment officer at Group Richelieu in Paris

“This goes against what central banks were expecting for oil prices and could potentially change their scenario by heating up inflation and slowing growth”

Matt Maley, a US-based chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.

“The comments about doing whatever it takes, Netanyahu saying this is just the beginning and the references to self defense — they are preparing for a serious retaliation. The last time Iran retaliated nothing got through but nobody knows what will happen next”