Argus
•
May 20, 2025
Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term
Summary
Stocks took something of a breather on Monday, but it was still another win for the bulls as the major indices rallied from opening losses. What has caught the attention of many analysts, as well as the financial media, is the recent rise in Treasury yields. And yes, the market always needs something to worry about. But yield worries, at least currently, seem to be fabricated to some degree -- based more on the size of the always-growing federal deficit and less on worries about inflation that might or might come from tariffs. According to the usdebtclock.org, federal debt as a percent of gross domestic product is 123% and total debt is almost $37 trillion. That equates to $108,000/citizen and $323,000/taxpayer. That certainly seems scary and we have heard chatter from some very long-term successful investors who suggest that we have entered a very dangerous place in our economic history. We have no true idea what the implications might be for the financial markets, but note that we have heard worries about the debt level, yields, and the economy for decades. Treasury yields along the whole curve have been range-bound for many years. In light of that, it's hard to get too worried, at least n
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