Summary

Watching Weekly Claims Wall Street's focus flips back to inflation this week, as key consumer and producer inflation data is due out. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 rose 2.2%, and the Nasdaq popped 1.5%. So far this year, the Dow is up 0.5%, the S&P 2%, and the Nasdaq 1%. Earnings report this week include GameStop, J.M. Smucker, and Dave & Buster's on Tuesday; Oracle and Chewy on Wednesday; and Adobe on Thursday. The final scoreboard for 1Q showed earnings growth of 14%, this after 17% growth in 4Q24 and 9% in 3Q24, according to LSEG. For 1Q, Healthcare was the leading sector, up 46%, while Energy was at the bottom, down 17%. On the economic calendar, Wednesday features the Consumer Price Index, Thursday the Producer Price Index, and Friday an update on Consumer Sentiment. We have adjusted our S&P 500 EPS estimates. For 2025, our forecast for S&P 500 earnings from continuing operations is now $270, reduced from $276. For 2026, our new estimate is $300, reduced from $307. Our new 2025 EPS estimate implies full-year EPS growth of 10%, reduced from 12%. And our new 2026 estimate assumes EPS growth of 10%, reduced from 11%. Meanwhile, the Economic Call of the Week from Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja, CFA, is the report on Initial Jobless Claims, on which he offered the following. 'Last week's print of 247,000 claims for the week ended May 31 is a wake-up call -- but not a fire alarm. Recent data shows a job market that is solid but slowing. The Unemployment Rate is low and steady at 4.2%. Payrolls rose by a solid 139,000 in May, but growth in March and April was revised lower by a notable 95,000. Is this revision and the increase in unemployment claims an inflection point for the economy? Weekly Jobless Claims, which are regarded as a leading economic indicator, can help make an assessment. Next week's four-week moving average of new filings for unemployment insurance will almost certainly remain below the level of 300,000, the level that raises our fears of a recession. But with nearly 285,000 job cuts announced by the federal government this year and only 59,000 appearing in the monthly employment reports through May, we will take a c