Slower Goods-Price Gains Helped With Inflation. It Could Be Ending.

A decline in goods prices has been bringing inflation lower, but that pattern seems to be over even before the full barrage of tariff hikes start to take hold.

Good prices, as measured by the index for commodities excluding food and energy, were flat month over month in May. That is an improvement from the 0.1% advance in April, but the annual rate of inflation is advancing. Compared with a year ago, goods inflation was 0.3% in May, up from 0.1% in April.

Some items more vulnerable to tariffs did register modest price increases. The cost of household furnishings rose 0.3% month over month in May, an acceleration from April’s 0.2% pace. Meanwhile, personal care items prices increased 0.5% over the month, a notable uptick from April’s 0.1% monthly gain. Major appliance prices jumped by 4.3% month over month and toy prices increased by 2.2%.