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The Fed is having a 'healthy debate' about whether Trump tariff inflation will be transitory: Kashkari

There is now a "healthy debate" within the Federal Reserve about whether any inflation triggered by President Trump’s tariffs will prove to be transitory, according to Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari.

Some policymakers are arguing for "looking through" the impact of the duties as temporary, but Kashkari identified himself as belonging in the other camp of officials who believe trade talks could take "months or years" to resolve and said, "There could be tit-for-tat tariff increases as trading partners respond to one other."

Thus Kashkari wants to keep rates steady "until there is more clarity on the path for tariffs and their impact on prices," he added while speaking in Tokyo Tuesday. "I find these arguments more compelling given the paramount importance I place on defending long-run inflation expectations."

Neel Kashkari, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks at the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference Sessions at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 7, 2024.  REUTERS/David Swanson

Neel Kashkari, president and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. REUTERS/David Swanson · REUTERS / Reuters

One of the big questions facing central bank policymakers at the moment is what effect Trump's trade policies will have on the direction of inflation and the US economy.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

The White House has argued that the Fed should view any price increases as a one-time event, with Trump himself repeatedly calling for the Fed to lower rates, but many Fed officials have made it clear they are not sure which way things will go.

The uncertainty highlights the dilemma for the central bank as it tries to weigh both sides of its mandate — stable prices and maximum employment — at a time when the true effects of White House trade policies on the economy are still unknown.

Fed governor Chris Waller is one central bank policymaker who has said a surge in tariff-related inflation could in fact be "temporary," which would allow Waller to "look through it and determine policy based on the underlying trend."

If trade negotiations are successful and the effective tariff rate is 10% then Waller sees inflation around 3% and says preemptive rate cuts from the Fed last year give the central bank time to "wait and see" how the economy evolves.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks during The Clearing House Annual Conference in New York City, U.S. November 12, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid · REUTERS / Reuters

This week will bring a fresh reading on the Fed’s favored inflation gauge: the so-called “core” Personal Consumption Expenditures index for the month of April.

While the reading due to be released Friday will take into account many of the administration’s tariff effects so far, year-over-year inflation is expected to have ticked down to 2.5% in April from 2.6% in March.

At the same time, economists will get a second reading on first quarter GDP, which initially sent shockwaves showing a 0.3% contraction. That small contraction is expected to hold.