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Stocks Supported as Tensions Ease in the Middle East

Tue Jun 24, 2025
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Rich Asplund

7 min read

In This Article:

View 2 of the trading floor of New York Stock Exchange by Lev Radin via Shutterstock

View 2 of the trading floor of New York Stock Exchange by Lev Radin via Shutterstock

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.81%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.79%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.15%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.84%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +1.15%.

Stock indexes are trading higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 4-month highs and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1-1/2 week high.  Global equity markets rallied, and WTI crude oil prices are down sharply by more than -5%, after President Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a tentative ceasefire, spurring hopes for a lasting resolution to the conflict.  The easing of geopolitical risks has boosted market sentiment and prompted a risk-on for asset markets.

Stocks fell back from their best levels after the Conference Board June US consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined.  Also, hawkish Fed commentary today signaled the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates.  Fed Chair Powell said, “The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level, and for the time being, we are well-positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Also, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the Fed doesn’t need to cut interest rates with companies planning to raise prices later this year in response to higher import taxes and with the job market still stable.

The US Apr S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index rose +3.42% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.90% and the smallest increase in 1-3/4 years.

The Conference Board June US consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -5.4 to 93.0, weaker than expectations of an increase to 99.8.

The US June Richmond Fed manufacturing conditions survey unexpectedly rose +2 to -7, stronger than expectations of a decline to -10.

The markets this week will look to see if the ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds. Also, any new tariff news or trade deals will be scrutinized.  On Wednesday, Mr. Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy.  Also, on Wednesday, US Mar new home sales are expected to fall -6.7% m/m to 693,000. On Thursday, Q1 GDP is expected to be unrevised at -0.2% (q/q annualized).  Also, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to be unchanged at 245,000.  Friday brings May personal spending (expected +0.1% m/m) and May personal income (expected +0.3% m/m).  Also, the May core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, is expected to rise by +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y.  Finally, the revised June University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index is expected to fall -0.2 to 60.3.