nickthomas2@benzinga.com
5 min read
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Bitcoin’s surge to $111,000 in late May has left many investors wondering whether they’ve missed the boat—or if the real gains are just getting started. According to PlanB, one of cryptocurrency’s most followed analysts, we may be witnessing something unprecedented: a “different” kind of bull market that’s only just begun.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $111,000 at the end of last month, surpassing its previous peak of $102,000 from earlier this year. But according to PlanB’s market cycle analysis, this milestone comes with a crucial timing element: we’re now approximately 34 months away from Bitcoin’s next halving event in 2028.
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PlanB uses a color-coded system to track Bitcoin’s position within its four-year halving cycles, and the indicator has just turned “orange”—signaling we’re in the early phases of what could be an extended bull market. Think of these colors as a countdown timer rather than a crystal ball: orange, yellow, green, and blue represent different stages leading up to the next halving, when Bitcoin’s supply growth rate gets cut in half again.
“This isn’t predictive,” PlanB emphasizes. “It’s detection—telling us where we are in the cycle, not where we’re going.”
What makes this cycle particularly intriguing is its unconventional shape. Unlike the explosive, vertical runs of 2017 or 2020, this bull market is characterized as “flatter and longer”—a pattern that might actually signal more sustainable, institutional-driven growth.
The current market structure is based on on-chain analysis rather than PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model, focusing on actual Bitcoin network activity and holder behavior. After what PlanB calls a “fake loop” following January 2024’s ETF introductions, Bitcoin has returned to where previous bull markets typically began their major ascents.
Key insight: Despite Bitcoin already reaching six figures, PlanB believes we’re at the “very beginning” of this bull cycle—a potentially explosive revelation for long-term investors.
