By Mike Dolan

LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

As the geopolitical center of gravity shifts from the Middle East to the NATO summit, Wall Street turns its attention back to the domestic economy and rising speculation about a U.S. interest rate cut as soon as September.

I'll discuss all the market news below. Make sure to check out today's column, where I zero in on the U.S. economic metric that has just surged to its highest point since 2006.

Today's Market Minute

* NATO leaders were set to sign up on Wednesday to a big increase in defence spending at a short summit tailor-made for U.S. President Donald Trump, who struck a reassuring tone on his commitment to protecting fellow members of the alliance.

* The ceasefire brokered by President Trump between Iran and Israel appeared to be holding on Wednesday, a day after both countries signalled their air war had ended, at least for now.

* The contained move in oil prices during the Israel-Iran war highlights the increasing efficiency of energy markets and fundamental changes to global crude supply. ROI columnist Ron Bousso explains why Middle East politics may no longer be such a dominant force in oil markets.

* The Reserve Bank of India's jumbo rate cuts in early June took economists by surprise, as many indicators point to an economy chugging along nicely. Manishi Raychaudhuri, CEO of Emmer Capital Partners, asks why the RBI needed to frontload monetary stimulus?

* Financial markets have consistently overestimated the Federal Reserve's readiness to cut interest rates in recent years. But the latest Fed chatter, softening economic data and a dramatic reversal in oil prices suggest markets could be right this time. Read the latest from ROI columnist Jamie McGeever.

Fed rate bets surge as oil calms

Global stocks captured by MSCI's all-country index, up more than 7% for the year-to-date, surged to record highs early on Wednesday.

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding into Wednesday, as debate swirls about just how much damage was done to Tehran's nuclear program. President Donald Trump joins other NATO leaders in The Hague for an annual gathering of the alliance that will underscore a big boost to defense spending.

But perhaps the market's big takeaway from the last two weeks of Middle East tensions is that the region is no longer the game changer it once was in global energy markets.

Over the course of the near two-week conflict, global crude oil prices never hit the sort of danger zone that would shift the dial on inflation rates. And U.S. crude prices, back down at $65 per barrel on Wednesday, are now more than 20% lower than they were this time last year.