TipRanks
6 min read
In This Article:
Costco (COST) has long been a market favorite, but its current valuation has even the most bullish investors raising eyebrows as the company trades near all-time highs. Trading at earnings multiples that outpace some of the world’s biggest tech giants, it’s fair to ask: how can a warehouse selling pallets of toilet paper and rotisserie chickens possibly justify such a steep premium? At first glance, the numbers don’t add up. Comparing Costco to tech companies indicates a rather inflated valuation for the wholesaler.
-
Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions
-
Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter
Timid growth projections, razor-thin margins, and a business model that hasn’t changed much in decades don’t exactly scream innovation. And yet, Costco continues to climb—largely, in my view, due to one key factor: risk perception. Because the company’s business model is so heavily anchored in predictable, recurring revenue from membership fees, its earnings stream is exceptionally stable.
That stability arguably justifies the stock’s lofty valuation—and forms the backbone of my bullish thesis, even if there’s little to no margin of safety.
I agree with Costco’s critics—those who are skeptical about a warehouse full of assorted goods trading at a forward P/E of 58, a multiple literally higher than tech giant and AI trailblazer Nvidia. For a company like Costco, which has grown revenue at a ~10% CAGR over the past five years and operating income by 15%—yet is only expected by analysts to grow revenue at a 5% CAGR over the next five—it really doesn’t make much sense, at first glance, for the business to trade at such a steep premium.
But here’s what a lot of market participants miss when analyzing companies: valuations based on net earnings are heavily anchored to one key factor—risk. And unlike earnings, there’s no single, universally accepted measure of risk. Some investors focus on beta, while others consider regulatory threats or macroeconomic exposure. Ultimately, each investor views the situation through their own lens.
That’s where Costco stands out as a rare case: a recurring revenue model outside of the tech sector. Customers pay an annual membership fee—ranging from $60 to $120 in the U.S.—just to shop in its warehouses. Costco likely converts nearly all of that directly into operating profit (though the company doesn’t explicitly disclose this), which allows the business to be highly profitable even while selling goods at razor-thin margins.
