Adam Wingfield

Wed, May 28, 2025, 6:23 AM5 min read

Every week, thousands of loads move across the country before a single rate hits the load board. That’s because most freight—especially high-volume freight—starts with a contract. Shippers send out tenders to their core carriers, usually the same ones every week. But when those carriers say no? That’s when things start to shift—and it’s also when the money starts moving.

The problem is, most small carriers and owner-operators aren’t watching what’s happening upstream. They’re watching load boards. They’re looking at what they got paid last week. And by the time they realize something’s changed, the smart brokers have already made their move.

This article breaks down what a tender rejection is, how it’s tracked, and how it can predict your next rates—if you know where to look.

Let’s break it down simple. A tender is a shipment offer from a shipper to a contract carrier. Think of it like this: a shipper says, “We’ve got a load leaving Atlanta going to Columbus. Can you move it for $1,950 like we agreed last month?”

If the carrier says yes, that’s accepted. If they say no—maybe they don’t have a truck, or the spot market’s paying better—that’s a tender rejection.

When enough of those get rejected in a given market, that freight has to go somewhere else. And where does it go?

The spot market.

This is where it gets critical for small carriers. You might not have access to the initial tender, but once it gets rejected, you’re in play. If you’re watching rejection data, you can position your truck before the freight hits the board—and you can negotiate stronger because you know the market’s getting tighter.

The freight market doesn’t run on guesswork. Large shippers and brokers use data tools like SONAR from FreightWaves to track trends. One of the most important metrics in SONAR is the Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI).

This number shows what percentage of loads are being rejected by contract carriers in a specific market.

If the OTRI in Chicago jumps from 5% to 10%, that means twice as many loads are being turned down. That’s a signal that capacity is tightening (available trucks are declining)—and spot rates are likely to rise in that market in the next few days.

Carriers who are watching this in real time can reposition their truck or push harder on rate in markets where tender rejections are rising.

Here’s how to read the signal:

• OTRI under 5% – Contract freight is being covered easily. No major pressure on spot rates. Expect soft rates on load boards.
  

• OTRI between 5–10% – Capacity is getting tighter. Spot market may start to absorb overflow freight. Rates likely to rise slightly.
  

• OTRI over 10% – Shippers are struggling to cover freight. Brokers are calling more carriers. Spot market is heating up fast.