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Borderlands Mexico: Winner in global tariff war could be Mexico, report says

Noi Mahoney

5 min read

Borderlands is a weekly rundown of developments in the world of United States-Mexico cross-border trucking and trade. This week: Winner in global tariff war could be Mexico, report says; DutyFreeZone.com secures distribution rights for Corona beer; and Korean auto supplier opens factory in Mexico.

Mexico could reap the benefits of President Donald Trump’s global tariff war and is poised to continue profiting from the growing trend of nearshoring.

While the average U.S. tariff rate rose to as high as 28% on countries around the world after Trump’s “Liberation Day” import tax announcement on April 2, most goods from Mexico to the U.S. qualify for tariff-free treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The USMCA “positions Mexico as a reliable alternative for companies seeking to reduce exposure to trade friction and long lead times from overseas markets,” according to Uber Freight’s 2025 Q2 Market Update.

“Nearshoring .. might slow down a little bit, but it is not going away,” Jose Guerrero, Uber Freight’s director of U.S. customs, told FreightWaves in an interview. “As a matter of fact, there’s a lot of Chinese investment in Mexico that’s happening. Our sales teams are really engaged with those companies.”

Nearshoring involves relocating business operations, particularly manufacturing and production, from countries around the globe to Mexico, which is geographically closer to the U.S.

The shift in supply chain strategy aims to benefit from Mexico’s trade agreement with the U.S. and other nations, along with the country’s lower labor costs and streamlined supply chains across North American markets.

Tariffs on goods imported from China to the U.S. vary significantly depending on the product, with rates ranging from 0% to 145%, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The average tariff rate on Chinese exports to the US is currently around 51.1%,

Mexico was the top trading partner of the U.S. in April, with two-way commerce totaling $69.7 billion, a 4% year-over-year decline compared to April 2024.

Canada ranked No. 2 in trade at $56.6 billion in April. China ranked third at $33.6 billion, followed by Germany at $20.5 billion and Japan at $20.4 billion.

“Mexico and Canada are the biggest trading partners with the U.S., and with some of the changes that have transpired over the last couple of months … Those companies that are really taking advantage of the whole USMCA program have really not stopped, trade never stops,” Guerrero said.