Joy Wiltermuth

Wed, Jun 4, 2025, 1:57 PM4 min read

The stock market has almost regained a foothold at the 6,000 level, recovering over a tumultuous eight weeks in which it fell almost 20% into a bear market.

Big round numbers don’t necessarily signal anything special for stocks, but they can serve as a psychological hurdle that, once overcome, could add to an existing rally — or serve as a gut check.

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Investors and 401(k)s have recovered significant ground since President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs announced April 2 dealt a blow to the S&P 500 index SPX and other major U.S. equity gauges.

Stocks have continued climbing even as U.S. courts have entered the mix, adding yet another potential wrinkle to the on-again-off-again tariff dynamic.

For the most part, however, tariff jitters were being offset by a view on Wall Street that the worst-case tariff scenario appears to be off the table. That’s been credited with helping the S&P 500 climb back to 5,970 as of Wednesday’s close, 19.8% above its April 8 low, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Yet a firm grip on the 6,000 level could prove hard to achieve.

“The number itself doesn’t matter,” Donald Calcagni, chief investment officer at Mercer Advisors, said in a phone call Wednesday. What ultimately matters is corporate earnings, interest rates and valuations, he said.

In that regard, the S&P 500’s recent price-to-earnings estimate of around 21 suggests equity valuations look “pretty high,” Calcagni said, especially given all the uncertainty on the horizon.

Richard Steinberg, chief market strategist at Focus Partners Wealth, also sees potential stumbling blocks to holding on to the 6,000 milestone, especially with the Federal Reserve, big companies and investors stuck in wait-and-see mode on several fronts.

“I think it’s a tough road for the president,” Steinberg said, referring to the Republican tax and spending megabill awaiting action in the Senate, but we are in “a healthy part of the phase” in terms of pushback on the sweeping proposal.

It might end up being a case where, for Republicans, you “can’t always get what you want,” he said. “I think the markets are OK with that.”