Gavin McMaster
5 min read
In This Article:
Markets enter the final week of June with the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) maintaining resilience near recent highs despite ongoing market volatility. With the S&P 500 having rallied more than 25% off its April low, complacency may be an investor's biggest enemy as traders prepare for a holiday-shortened week featuring critical employment data, manufacturing updates, and Tesla's closely watched quarterly delivery numbers. Trade negotiations remain in focus following last week's positive U.S.-China trade developments touted by Trump, while the White House downplayed the significance of the July 9 tariff deadline. Friday's halt to Canada trade negotiations was quickly shrugged off by investors, suggesting markets have become increasingly adept at parsing trade rhetoric from substantive policy changes. The week brings a packed economic calendar culminating with Friday's jobs report, while markets will close early Thursday for Independence Day celebrations.
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Manufacturing Momentum Check
Monday's Chicago PMI at 9:45am kicks off a comprehensive assessment of manufacturing sector health, followed by Tuesday's dual manufacturing readings with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10am. The ISM report typically carries more market weight due to its broader survey base and longer track record as a leading economic indicator. Manufacturing has faced headwinds throughout 2025, with several months showing contraction territory below the critical 50 level. Any signs of expansion could boost cyclical sectors and industrial stocks, while continued weakness might raise concerns about broader economic resilience heading into the second half of the year. The ISM Manufacturing Prices component will be particularly scrutinized for inflation signals, especially given the Fed's ongoing focus on price stability. Companies in the materials, industrials, and machinery sectors could see heightened volatility based on these readings.
Tesla Delivery Drama
Wednesday brings Tesla's (TSLA) highly anticipated Q2 delivery numbers, a critical test for the electric vehicle leader following a 13% year-over-year drop in first-quarter deliveries that disappointed investors. Wall Street will be closely watching whether Tesla can demonstrate improved demand momentum amid increasing competition in the EV space and ongoing market share pressures. The delivery figures will provide crucial insights into consumer appetite for Tesla's vehicles and the effectiveness of recent price adjustments and promotional strategies. Beyond the headline numbers, investors will analyze geographic performance, model mix, and any commentary about production challenges or supply chain issues. The results could significantly impact not only Tesla's stock price but also broader sentiment toward the EV sector and related supply chain companies including battery manufacturers, charging infrastructure providers, and automotive technology firms.
